SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS

As a result of changes to Social Security enacted in 1983, benefits are now expected to be payable in full on a timely basis until 2037, when the trust fund reserves are projected to become exhausted.1 At the point where the reserves are used up, continuing taxes are expected to be enough to pay 76 percent of scheduled benefits. Thus, the Congress will need to make changes to the scheduled benefits and revenue sources for the program in the future. The Social Security Board of Trustees project that changes equivalent to an immediate reduction in benefits of about 13 percent, or an immediate increase in the combined payroll tax rate from 12.4 percent to 14.4 percent, or some combination of these changes, would be sufficient to allow full payment of the scheduled benefits for the next 75 years.

Since the inception of the Social Security program in 1935, scheduled benefits have always been paid on a timely basis through a series of modifications in the law that will continue. Social Security provides a basic level of monthly income to workers and their families after the workers have reached old age, become disabled, or died. The program now provides benefits to over 50 million people and is financed with the payroll taxes from over 150 million workers and their employers. Further modifications of the program are a certainty as the Congress continues to evolve and shape this program, reflecting the desires of each new generation.

This article describes the financial status of the Social Security program, including an analysis of the concepts of solvency and sustainability and the relationship of Social Security to the overall federal unified budget. The future is uncertain in many respects, and based on new information, projections of the financial status of the Social Security program vary somewhat over time. What is virtually certain is that the benefits that almost all Americans become entitled to and most depend on will be continued into the future with modifications deemed appropriate by their elected representatives in the Congress.

Annual Reports by the Trustees

Each year, starting in 1941, the Social Security Board of Trustees has presented a required report on the financial status of the program to the Congress. The board has six members, including the Secretary of the Treasury as the managing trustee, the Secretary of Labor, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and the Commissioner of Social Security, plus two public trustees appointed by the president and confirmed by the senate.

The Social Security Act requires that the annual report include the financial operations of the trust funds in the most recent past year,  the expected financial operations of the trust funds over the next 5 years, and an analysis of the actuarial status of the program. The recent financial operations and the operations projected for the next few years are a finger on the pulse of the program. The actuarial status of the program is intended to provide an early warning of any potential longer-term financial issues or challenges that will be facing the program.

The longer-term analysis of the actuarial status of the Social Security trust funds provides the Congress with an essential early warning of future challenges and provides the time to make desired changes in a careful and thoughtful manner. Although legislative changes may sometimes appear to be decided at the last minute before a crisis, the long advance warning of financial challenges provided by the trustees in the annual reports has always promoted broad consideration of options for change that allow any eventual modification of the law to be based on sound analysis and consideration of a comprehensive view of possible changes and their effects.

Since the last major amendments to the Social Security program were enacted in 1983, the annual reports have presented a succession of developments in the actual experience of the economy and the program benefits that show a need for more change to address the future challenges we face. The 1983 Trustees Report indicated that the Social Security program was put into “actuarial balance” for the 75-year, long-range projection period. This meant that under the intermediate assumptions used in that report, representing the trustees’ best estimate of future experience at that time, program financing was expected to be sufficient to pay scheduled benefits in full through 2057.2 However, that report also indicated that well before 2057, program cost would rise above the annual tax income to the program, requiring redemption of trust fund reserves to pay full benefits. The report also showed that these reserves would be approaching exhaustion in 2057, so that full scheduled benefits would not be payable starting shortly thereafter, without further change to the program. Thus, even at the enactment of the 1983 Amendments to the Social Security Act, it was known that further changes would be needed. The continuing projections in the annual reports since 1983 have borne out this projection and have resulted in extensive consideration of options.

Solvency of the Social Security Program

When individuals look at the financial status of the Social Security program, they often ask, “Will I get my benefits?” Assuming no future change in the law, this question can be answered directly by focusing on the “solvency” of the Social Security trust funds. Solvency for the Social Security program is defined as the ability of the trust funds at any point in time to pay the full scheduled benefits in the law on a timely basis.

The two Social Security trust funds, those for Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) benefits and for Disability Insurance (DI) benefits, are special. Along with the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund of the Medicare program, the OASI and DI Trust Funds have the important feature that benefits can only be paid to the extent that the trust funds actually have assets to draw on to pay the benefits. Unlike the rest of federal government operations, these three trust fund programs do not have the ability to borrow in order to continue paying benefits when the dedicated taxes and trust fund reserves are not sufficient.

Because the ability of these programs to pay benefits is directly dependent on the availability of assets in their respective trust funds, the existence of assets over time in the future is the critical indicator of solvency. Taken from the 2009 Trustees Report, Chart 1 shows that under the trustees’ intermediate assumptions (alternative II), the combined assets of the OASI and DI Trust Funds will soon peak at over 350 percent of the annual cost of the program, but will then decline, reaching exhaustion in 2037. The relatively more optimistic assumptions of the low-cost alternative I show solvency for the program throughout the 75-year projection period, while the relatively pessimistic high-cost alternative III assumptions show trust fund exhaustion even sooner than 2037. These alternative sets of assumptions are just one of several ways the trustees illustrate the uncertainty of long-range projections for the future.

OASI and DI Trust Funds Separately

Although the financial status of the Social Security program is most often considered on a combined basis, as though there were just one trust fund, there are in fact two separate trust funds—one for the OASI program and the other for the DI program. Old-age benefits were enacted in 1935 and started to be paid on a monthly basis in 1940. Benefits for disabled workers below the NRA were not enacted into law until 1956. A separate trust fund has been maintained for the DI program ever since that time, in part in recognition of the special nature of disability and a desire to maintain separate focus on the financing of these benefits.

Currently, the DI program is projected to have a less favorable actuarial status than the OASI program. DI Trust Fund exhaustion is projected for 2020 under the trustees’ intermediate assumptions in the 2009 Trustees Report. Trust fund exhaustion is projected for 2038 for the OASI fund separately. The proximity of the trust fund exhaustion for the DI program requires special attention. Since 1983, DI program cost has risen above expectations to a much greater degree than has OASI program cost. This is not very surprising, as the benefits under the OASI program are far more predictable than those under the DI program.

Taken from the 2009 Trustees Report, Chart 4 illustrates the different projections for the OASI and DI Trust Funds. In addition to the much sooner projected trust fund exhaustion for the DI program under the intermediate alternative II assumptions, the chart shows the even greater uncertainty around DI cost and actuarial status than for the OASI program.